Cities at Risk: Tipping Points in the Ecuadorian Andes
The Research Project
Andean cities are highly vulnerable to multiple natural hazards due to their geographic location and strong dependence on surrounding ecosystems. Climate change and human pressures, including deforestation, land-use change and extractive activities, are further intensifying these risks. At the same time, the Amazon rainforest is approaching a potential tipping point, that could cause a large-scale ecosystem transition driven by similar pressures. This could alter regional climate and precipitation patterns across South America, threatening freshwater systems and urban water security. Because Andean cities strongly depend on stable precipitation regimes and the páramo ecosystems for water regulation and storage, the Amazon tipping point may act as a cross-scale amplifier of vulnerability, increasing exposure to water scarcity and natural hazards.
This PhD project investigates how climate change, deforestation and especially unregulated gold mining interact across urban-rural systems in Ecuador, a country characterized by high biodiversity and significant ecosystems. Here, gold mining is a major driver of forest loss and mercury pollution, affecting freshwater quantity and quality far beyond local mining sites while reinforcing trajectories toward an Amazon tipping point and potential regional risk tipping points. Using a multi-method approach with a focus on satellite remote sensing, this PhD project aims to better understand how cross-scale environmental changes impact freshwater systems, urban populations and the resilience of Andean cities.
What I need the IRB for
To capture the addressed cross-scale dynamics, it is essential to understand local needs and continuously adapt research questions and methods to the regional context. Therefore, the IRB plays a crucial role in enabling sustained on-site research and fostering close collaboration with local researchers and affected communities. In addition, the IRB will support the further development of my research by enabling me to present my work at international conferences, which will help me position my project within broader international scientific debates and enhance its overall impact.